El RCEP y el comercio mundial avanza hacia el Este
El 1 de enero de 2022 entró en vigor la Asociación Económica Integral Regional (RCEP), el mayor bloque comercial del mundo hasta la fecha, que representa el 30% de la población mundial con más de 2.200 millones de consumidores y más de una cuarta parte de las exportaciones mundiales.
El acuerdo fue firmado por los 15 primeros miembros en noviembre de 2020, incluidos todos los países de la ASEAN (Brunéi Darussalam, Camboya, Indonesia, Laos, Malasia, Myanmar, Filipinas, Singapur, Tailandia y Vietnam), así como Australia, China, Corea del Sur, Japón y Nueva Zelanda. India, aunque ha participado en varias reuniones, de momento no ha ratificado su adhesión. Los Estados que ya han ratificado el acuerdo son: Australia, Brunei, Camboya, China, Japón, Nueva Zelanda, Singapur, Tailandia, Vietnam y Laos; Corea del Sur entró oficialmente en el acuerdo el 1 de febrero de 2022.
Los puntos más destacados del acuerdo entre los Estados firmantes son:
- una reducción de los derechos de importación de muchos productos;
- normas comunes para la información sobre el origen de los productos;
- normas comunes que rigen el comercio electrónico;
- Refuerzo de las cadenas de suministro (CGV).
El RCEP marca el inicio de una cooperación regional que excluye a EE.UU., incluyendo en su lugar al actor más en el punto de mira del comercio internacional: China, que había sido excluida de la ASEAN. Es la primera vez que China firma un pacto comercial multilateral regional, ya que hasta ahora había favorecido los acuerdos comerciales bilaterales. La entrada de China en el RCEP es significativa, ya que podría actuar como líder y gran inversor, junto con Corea del Sur, Japón y Australia, para las economías signatarias que actualmente están rezagadas, como Laos.
Algunos Estados signatarios del RCEP ya son actores clave en la economía mundial y en las cadenas de valor globales, otros lo fueron más en años pasados, y otros poseen un potencial económico muy elevado que aún no han podido expresar, pero que podrán explotar más eficazmente con esta asociación, como Vietnam. Estos últimos, al igual que Indonesia y Filipinas, ya llevaban tiempo aplicando acuerdos bilaterales relevantes para el comercio, como el Acuerdo de Libre Comercio Vietnam-Europa (EVFTA).
Estos Estados están aplicando políticas muy agresivas de incentivos a la inversión extranjera y a las nuevas tecnologías verdes, con el fin de aumentar sus conocimientos tecnológicos, actualmente escasos, e incrementar la productividad del país aprendiendo de economías más fuertes. El ejemplo perfecto lo ha proporcionado China, que durante años ha fomentado, y sigue haciéndolo, la inversión extranjera en los sectores con mayor potencial, primero en la industria manufacturera y ahora en I+D y la economía verde.
El RCEP podría crear un sistema regional de suministro y reventa dentro de la región, reforzando las cadenas de valor mundiales junto con el consumo interno y aumentando la eficiencia nacional. Aunque el acuerdo prevé una reducción gradual y la eliminación de aranceles y contingentes, no contempla la creación de una zona de libre comercio como la Unión Europea. Sin embargo, el RCEP contribuirá a la creación de una zona más eficiente e integrada, que ya participa en procesos de producción de bienes acabados y semiacabados muy importantes para los mercados occidentales. El acuerdo también podría crear una especie de prioridad inicial de abastecimiento interno que podría ralentizar aún más la cadena de suministro de las empresas occidentales, que actualmente dependen de ellos tanto para la producción como para las materias primas.
Sin embargo, Europa se ha asegurado en los últimos años algunas alianzas muy importantes, que pueden frenar el problema del suministro y la exclusión de la cadena de valor global del bloque del RCEP, por ejemplo, las estipuladas con Vietnam, Japón y la propia Ruta de la Seda, que tiene un gran potencial de vínculos comerciales no solo con China, sino también con los Estados intermedios y, a partir del 1 de enero de 2022, con todo el Sudeste Asiático.
Fuente: por Exportiamo redazione@exportiamo.it, traducido y adaptado por Exportamos info@exportamos.info
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